D2: Employee Impact

Core Question: How does this problem affect the people who work for us?

Employee impact is often the most overlooked dimension — yet it creates some of the most persistent cascades through quality degradation and knowledge loss.

Primary Cascade: Employee → Quality (80% of cases)

Observable Signals

Don't wait for resignations. Look for early warning signals in your systems:

Signal Type	Observable	Data Source	Detection Speed
Immediate	Overtime hours spike	Timesheets, HRIS	Daily
Behavioral	Meeting no-shows	Calendar analytics	Days
Sentiment	Engagement score drop	Pulse surveys	Weekly
Productivity	Output decline	Project management tools	Weeks
Turnover	Resignation notices	HR system	Immediate
Knowledge	Bus factor = 1	HEAT heatmap	Ongoing
Health	Sick day increase	HR data	Weeks
Silent	Reduced participation	Meeting notes, Slack activity	Weeks

Trigger Keywords

Language patterns indicate severity. Train your team to flag these:

High Urgency (Sound = 8-10)

"I'm done"              "putting in notice"       "can't do this anymore"
"looking for other jobs" "burned out"             "hostile environment"
"discrimination"         "harassment"             "unsafe"

Action: Executive escalation within 1 hour.

Medium Urgency (Sound = 4-7)

"overwhelmed"           "not sustainable"         "need help"
"understaffed"          "no work-life balance"    "thankless"
"underappreciated"      "dead end"               "no growth"

Action: Manager review within 24 hours.

Low Urgency / Early Warning (Sound = 1-3)

"just curious about"    "any development opportunities"  "hypothetically"
"work from home policy" "how do other teams"             "is it just us"

Action: Track pattern over time.

Metrics

Track both leading (predictive) and lagging (historical) indicators:

Metric Type	Metric Name	Calculation	Target	Alert Threshold
Leading	Overtime hours	Hours > 40/week	<10% of team	>20%
Leading	Engagement pulse	Survey score (1-10)	>7.5	<6.5
Leading	Meeting attendance	Attended / Invited	>90%	<80%
Leading	PTO utilization	Days taken / Days available	70-100%	<50%
Lagging	Voluntary turnover	Resignations / Headcount	<15% annually	>20%
Lagging	Time-to-fill	Days from req to hire	<45 days	>60 days
Lagging	Knowledge concentration	% of critical tasks with single owner	<20%	>40%

Example Dashboard Query

-- Overtime hours alert
SELECT
  employee_id,
  department,
  SUM(hours) - (COUNT(DISTINCT week) * 40) as overtime_hours,
  COUNT(DISTINCT week) as weeks_count
FROM timesheets
WHERE date >= CURRENT_DATE - INTERVAL '12 weeks'
GROUP BY employee_id, department
HAVING SUM(hours) - (COUNT(DISTINCT week) * 40) > (COUNT(DISTINCT week) * 4)  -- Alert at 10% overtime
ORDER BY overtime_hours DESC

Cascade Pathways

Employee impact multiplies rapidly across other dimensions:

Cascade Probabilities

Cascade Path	Probability	Severity if Occurs
Employee → Quality	80%	High
Employee → Operational	70%	High
Employee → Revenue	50%	Medium (via turnover costs)

Why Quality Cascade is Most Common:

1. Burned-out employees make more mistakes (attention deficit)
2. They take shortcuts to manage workload (quality compromise)
3. They stop caring about excellence (engagement collapse)
4. They leave, taking institutional knowledge (quality inconsistency)

Multiplier Factors

Not all employee issues cascade equally. The multiplier depends on:

Factor	Low (1.5×)	Medium (3×)	High (6×+)
Role Criticality	Easily backfilled	Specialized	Irreplaceable expertise
Knowledge Concentration	Well-documented	Partially documented	Tribal knowledge only
Team Size	Large team (redundancy)	Medium team	Small/Solo
Replacement Time	<30 days	30-90 days	>90 days
Training Investment	Entry level	Mid-level	Senior/Specialized

Example Calculation

Scenario: Senior engineer with 5 years at company, owns critical payment system, 90+ days to replace

Multiplier factors:
- Role criticality: High (6×)
- Knowledge concentration: High (6×)
- Team size: Small (6×)
- Replacement time: High (6×)
- Training investment: High (6×)

Average multiplier: (6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6) ÷ 5 = 6×

Impact:

• Direct cost of resignation: $150K (recruiting, onboarding, ramp time)
• Multiplied impact: $150K × 6 = $900K
• Plus quality cascade risk: 80% probability of defects = $200K × 0.8 = $160K
• Total risk: $1.06M from a single resignation

3D Scoring (Sound × Space × Time)

Apply the Cormorant Foraging lens to employee dimension:

Lens	Score 1-3	Score 4-6	Score 7-10
Sound (Urgency)	Grumbling	Active complaints	Resignation
Space (Scope)	One person	One team	Cross-functional
Time (Trajectory)	Temporary stress	Sustained pressure	Chronic condition

Formula: Dimension Score = (Sound × Space × Time) ÷ 10

Example Scoring

Scenario: Entire engineering team complaining about unsustainable pace, pattern continuing for 3 months, first resignations submitted

Sound = 8 (resignations submitted)
Space = 7 (entire team affected)
Time = 7 (chronic, 3+ months)

Employee Impact Score = (8 × 7 × 7) ÷ 10 = 39.2

Interpretation: Critical urgency (39.2 > 30). Expect immediate cascade to Quality and Operational dimensions. Revenue impact imminent.

Detection Strategy

Automated Monitoring

Set up alerts for:

1. Overtime spike (>20% of team working >10% overtime)
2. Engagement drop (pulse survey score <6.5)
3. Attendance decline (meeting attendance <80%)
4. PTO underutilization (<50% of available days used)

Human Intelligence

Train your managers to:

1. Flag language patterns (use trigger keyword lists)
2. Monitor behavioral changes (withdrawal, cynicism, reduced participation)
3. Track knowledge concentration (who owns what, bus factor analysis)
4. Identify burnout signals (overtime patterns, weekend work, vacation avoidance)

Real-World Example

The "Inventory System is Broken" Signal:

Observable	Data Point	3D Score
Signal	"Inventory system is broken" from senior technician in team meeting	Sound = 7
Context	FAA-certified mechanic, specialized role, parts delays affecting all bays	Space = 6
Trend	Complaints escalating over 6 months	Time = 6.3
Score	(7 × 6 × 6.3) ÷ 10 = 26.5	High urgency

Cascade Prediction:

• 80% probability → Quality impact (rushed repairs, maintenance delays)
• 75% probability → Operational impact (knowledge loss if technician leaves)
• Multiplier: 4.2× (specialized aviation mechanics, FAA certifications, aircraft-specific expertise)

Action Taken:

1. Inventory system upgrade prioritized (within 2 weeks)
2. Technician retention bonuses implemented (within 1 week)
3. Cross-training program to reduce frustration from parts delays (within 1 month)
4. Result: Turnover prevented, morale improved from 6.2 to 7.5, parts availability increased 40%

Industry Variations

B2B SaaS

• Primary metric: Employee NPS (eNPS)
• Key signal: Engineering velocity decline (story points/sprint)
• Cascade risk: Employee → Quality → Customer

Healthcare

• Primary metric: Nurse-to-patient ratio, shift overtime
• Key signal: Medical error rates, near-miss incidents
• Cascade risk: Employee → Quality → Regulatory → Customer (Patient)

Manufacturing

• Primary metric: Safety incident rate, absenteeism
• Key signal: Production defect rate, downtime events
• Cascade risk: Employee → Quality → Operational → Revenue

Next Steps

📊 D3: Revenue Impact — How employee issues drain productivity and increase costs

🎯 D5: Quality Impact — The 80% cascade from employee burnout to quality degradation

🔄 Cascade Analysis — Map how employee issues multiply

📖 Observable Properties — Complete signal catalog

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Remember: The employee who complains is asking for help. The employee who goes silent has already mentally quit. Track both. 🪶