Cascade Pathways
"Every problem starts in one dimension. Smart analysis tracks where it spreads."
Problems don't stay contained. A billing error becomes customer churn. Employee burnout creates quality issues. Understanding cascade pathways lets you predict the multiplication before it happens.
The Core Principle
Cascade multiplication: A problem in one dimension triggers impacts in other dimensions, each with its own severity and cost.
Why this matters:
- Direct costs are measured. Cascade costs are unmeasured—until now.
- Most analysis stops at the origin dimension.
- The multiplier effect is where true impact lives.
CASCADE PATHWAY MASTER MAP
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ PROBLEM ORIGIN │
│ (Identify starting dimension) │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────┘
│
┌───────────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ │
▼ ▼ ▼
┌─────────────┐ ┌─────────────┐ ┌─────────────┐
│ CUSTOMER │◄──────────────────────►│ EMPLOYEE │◄──────────────────────►│ REVENUE │
│ D1 │ │ D2 │ │ D3 │
└──────┬──────┘ └──────┬──────┘ └──────┬──────┘
│ │ │
│ ┌────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────┐ │
│ │ │ │ │
│ ▼ ▼ ▼ │
│ ┌─────────────┐ ┌─────────────┐ ┌─────────────┐ │
└─►│ REGULATORY │◄────────────►│ QUALITY │◄────────────►│ OPERATIONAL │◄─┘
│ D4 │ │ D5 │ │ D6 │
└─────────────┘ └─────────────┘ └─────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ CASCADE MULTIPLICATION │
│ │
│ Each dimension can trigger any other │
│ Pathway strength varies by problem type │
│ Multiple simultaneous cascades possible │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Primary Cascade Patterns
Not all cascades are equally probable. These are the most common cascade pathways observed:
| Origin | Primary Target | Secondary Target | Tertiary Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer | Revenue (70%) | Employee (50%) | Regulatory (20%) |
| Employee | Quality (80%) | Operational (70%) | Revenue (40%) |
| Revenue | Operational (85%) | Employee (60%) | Quality (40%) |
| Regulatory | Revenue (90%) | Customer (70%) | Operational (60%) |
| Quality | Customer (85%) | Operational (75%) | Regulatory (30%) |
| Operational | Quality (80%) | Employee (75%) | Revenue (60%) |
Reading the Table
- Primary Target: Most likely cascade (>70% probability)
- Secondary Target: Common cascade (>50% probability)
- Tertiary Target: Less common but often highest severity
Example: A regulatory violation (D4) has a 90% probability of cascading to Revenue (fines, penalties), 70% to Customer (trust erosion), and 60% to Operational (remediation efforts).
Understanding Cascade Flows
Cascade Depth Analysis
Cascades don't stop at one level. They propagate:
LEVEL 0 (Origin): Problem occurs in Dimension X
│
▼
LEVEL 1 (Primary): Cascades to Dimensions Y, Z
│
▼
LEVEL 2 (Secondary): Y and Z cascade to Dimensions A, B
│
▼
LEVEL 3 (Tertiary): Further multiplication...Depth Impact on Multiplier
| Cascade Depth | Dimensions Affected | Typical Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 only | 1-2 dimensions | 1.5-2× |
| Level 2 | 2-3 dimensions | 2-4× |
| Level 3 | 3-4 dimensions | 4-6× |
| Level 3+ | 4-6 dimensions | 6-10× |
| All dimensions | 6 dimensions (rare) | 10×+ |
Example: Multi-Level Cascade
Scenario: Aviation maintenance parts inventory issues ($119K direct cost annually)
LEVEL 0: OPERATIONAL (Origin)
Parts inventory issues
Direct cost: $119,000 annually
│
├─────────────────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────┐
▼ ▼ ▼
LEVEL 1: QUALITY (80%) EMPLOYEE (75%) REVENUE (65%)
Aircraft downtime Technician overtime Penalty clauses
Maintenance delays Frustration signals Lost contracts
Cost: $330K Cost: $370K Cost: $880K
│ │ │
▼ ▼ ▼
LEVEL 2: CUSTOMER (85%) QUALITY (80%) REGULATORY (30%)
Airlines questioning [Already counted] FAA documentation
Contract renewal ─ Missing records
Cost: $440K Cost: $61KTotal Cascade Impact:
- Level 0: $119K (Operational)
- Level 1: $1,580K (Quality + Employee + Revenue)
- Level 2: $501K (Customer + Regulatory)
- TOTAL: $2,200,000
- Multiplier: 18.5×
Cascade Velocity
Some cascades happen immediately. Others take time.
| Cascade Type | Velocity | Time to Impact | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immediate | <24 hours | Same day | System outage → Customer impact |
| Fast | 1-7 days | Within week | Quality issue → Customer complaints |
| Medium | 1-4 weeks | Within month | Employee burnout → Quality degradation |
| Slow | 1-3 months | Quarterly | Revenue decline → Hiring freeze |
| Delayed | 3+ months | Long-term | Regulatory → Market reputation |
Strategic implication: Fast cascades demand immediate response. Slow cascades allow preventive action.
Mapping Your Cascade
Use this template to trace cascade pathways for any problem:
ORIGIN: [Primary Dimension]
│
├── Pathway 1: → [Dimension] (Probability: __%)
│ └── Evidence: _______________________
│ └── Estimated Cost: $_____________
│
├── Pathway 2: → [Dimension] (Probability: __%)
│ └── Evidence: _______________________
│ └── Estimated Cost: $_____________
│
└── Pathway 3: → [Dimension] (Probability: __%)
└── Evidence: _______________________
└── Estimated Cost: $_____________
LEVEL 2 CASCADES:
[For each Level 1 dimension, repeat above]
TOTAL CASCADE COST: $_____________
MULTIPLIER: ___×Preventing Cascade Multiplication
Early Detection Strategies
- Monitor origin dimension closely — Stop problems before they cascade
- Watch primary cascade paths — Set alerts for likely targets
- Track cascade velocity — Fast cascades need immediate action
- Measure cascade costs — Make unmeasured costs visible
Containment Tactics
| Cascade Path | Containment Strategy |
|---|---|
| Customer → Revenue | Proactive retention outreach, service recovery |
| Employee → Quality | Temporary quality checks, peer review |
| Operational → Employee | Resource reallocation, overtime limits |
| Quality → Customer | Rapid response team, transparency |
| Regulatory → Revenue | Legal review, compliance audit |
Next Steps
Remember: The problem you can see is just the beginning. Map the cascade to see the full cost. 🪶